Simplest election model gives Kamala 55%

There are many election models making the round, from the good old 538 (now under new management) to the economist and Nate Silver. The all agree it is basically a toss-up with Kamala having a slight advantage.

There are 7 swing states that most likely will decide the election. What if we treat each state as an actual coin toss? That gives you 2⁷ = 128 possible outcomes. Turns out Harris wins in 71 of those scenarios, and Trump 56, or in percentages, 55% vs 44%, almost perfectly in line with the very advanced models. And yes there is one scenario where it is a draw (for a .7% likelihood).

See the spreadsheet here